Research
In-depth analysis and insights on the Pokemon TCG investment landscape
Latest Research
State of the Pokemon TCG Market: 2025 Year in Review
Comprehensive analysis of market performance, emerging trends, and outlook for 2026
PKM90 Index Methodology and Performance Attribution
Deep dive into our flagship index construction, rebalancing procedures, and historical performance drivers
Vintage vs Modern: Comparative Risk-Return Analysis
Quantitative comparison of vintage and modern card performance, volatility, and correlation characteristics
Research Focus Areas
Market Structure
Analysis of liquidity dynamics, price discovery mechanisms, and market microstructure across different card segments and marketplaces.
Valuation Models
Development and refinement of quantitative models for fair value estimation, incorporating rarity, condition, historical sales, and market sentiment.
Portfolio Construction
Optimal portfolio allocation strategies, diversification benefits, and risk management techniques specific to Pokemon card investments.
Behavioral Finance
Study of collector psychology, herd behavior, and sentiment indicators that drive Pokemon card market cycles and valuations.
Key Findings
Market Growth Trajectory
The Pokemon TCG market has grown at a 35% compound annual growth rate from 2019-2025, significantly outpacing traditional collectibles markets. Key drivers include:
- Millennial nostalgia and purchasing power
- COVID-19 pandemic driving renewed collector interest
- Social media amplification and influencer engagement
- Professional grading standardization increasing market confidence
- Institutional interest in alternative assets
Liquidity Segmentation
Our research identifies three distinct liquidity tiers: ultra-liquid flagship cards trading with spreads under 5%, mid-tier cards with 10-20% spreads, and illiquid niche cards with spreads exceeding 30%. Understanding these tiers is crucial for portfolio construction and risk management.
Era Performance Divergence
Vintage cards (1999-2003) demonstrate lower volatility and stronger long-term appreciation compared to modern releases. However, modern cards offer superior liquidity and lower transaction costs. Optimal portfolios typically blend both eras for balanced risk-return characteristics.
Correlation with Traditional Assets
Pokemon cards exhibit low correlation (0.15-0.25) with traditional equity and fixed income markets, suggesting meaningful diversification benefits. Correlation with other collectibles categories (sports cards, art) is moderate (0.40-0.60).
Methodology
Data Collection
Our research leverages proprietary data aggregated from 15+ marketplaces, representing over 10 million transaction records since 2019. Data undergoes rigorous cleaning and validation procedures to ensure accuracy.
Quantitative Analysis
We employ advanced statistical methods including time series analysis, regression modeling, and machine learning algorithms to extract insights and build predictive models.
Peer Review
Major research publications undergo internal peer review by our quantitative team and external validation by academic collaborators and industry experts.
Data Access for Researchers
We support academic research on alternative assets and collectibles markets. Qualified researchers can request access to anonymized historical data for non-commercial research purposes.
For research collaborations or data access inquiries, contact: research@outlet.markets
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Disclaimer: Research reports are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk.